Method & Model

From question
to defensible answer.

Two questions guide the work. Which parts of the process can be handled more efficiently, and what can the resulting information tell the decision-maker?

Automation can collect, reconcile, and prepare information when the source systems allow it. Economic analysis then uses that evidence to examine costs, productivity, performance, and the trade-offs behind the decision.

The arc

Five stages between
a question and a number.

The analysis follows the same basic sequence from framing through interpretation. Smaller questions may require less work at each stage, while larger ones may require several rounds within a stage.

Stage I

Frame the question

Define exactly what is being measured and which decision the answer is meant to inform. Clarify the question before choosing data or a method.

Stage II

Identify the comparison

Ask what outcome would have been expected without the decision or event being studied. That comparison helps determine whether the design should use difference-in-differences, an event study, synthetic control, or another method suited to the setting and available data.

Stage III

Build the evidence

Identify the relevant sources, document how they are cleaned and combined, and define the treatment, comparison, timing, and outcomes in reproducible code where the setting allows it.

Stage IV

Estimate & stress-test

Estimate the effect together with its uncertainty and sensitivity to reasonable alternative assumptions, samples, and specifications. Those checks are part of interpreting the result.

Stage V

Translate to decision

Translate the result into the decision it is meant to inform. The final form may be a short memo, a reporting update, or another concise output, with the technical work available underneath for review.

Agents in practice

Agents handle repetition.
Economics handles interpretation.

Once a workflow is in place, agents can continue collecting and preparing information on a schedule when the source systems permit it. That creates a more consistent evidence base for the analytical stages above without turning the automated output itself into the conclusion.

Current data
When systems can be connected directly, the analysis can draw from recent reconciled information instead of beginning with a new manual collection process each time.
Consistent measures
If the same measure appears in several reports, each use should draw from the same definition and underlying source. The workflow can help enforce that consistency.
Changes become questions
When a measure moves outside its expected range, the useful next step is to ask why. The methods below provide different ways to test whether the change reflects the decision being studied or other conditions moving at the same time.
The methods stack

Different questions require different methods.

Method choice depends on the structure of the question, the comparison available, and the quality of the data. The options below are part of the working toolkit and are selected according to those conditions.

Difference-in-differences
Compare the change in a treated group with the change in a comparable untreated group over the same period. The design helps separate the treatment effect from changes affecting both groups.
Event study
Trace an outcome before and after an event or decision. The pattern can show whether a change begins around the event or was already underway beforehand.
Synthetic control
When there is no natural comparison unit, construct a weighted combination of untreated units that more closely matches the treated unit before the intervention.
Callaway–Sant'Anna
A difference-in-differences estimator designed for settings where treatment begins at different times across groups. It allows treatment effects to vary across groups and periods.
Inverse-probability weighting
Reweight observations using estimated treatment probabilities so the treated and comparison groups are more comparable on observed characteristics.
Net present value (NPV) / internal rate of return (IRR) & sensitivity
Use discounted cash-flow analysis when costs and benefits arrive at different times. Sensitivity analysis then shows how the conclusion changes when the assumptions that matter most are varied.

Additional methods can include marginal and opportunity-cost analysis, structural modeling, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, bootstrap inference, and Bayesian updating when the question and data support them.

Defensibility

Every estimate carries
its own audit trail.

An estimate should be open to examination. The supporting work can document the inputs, design choices, alternative specifications, and assumptions that materially affect the result so the conclusion can be challenged and checked.

The goal is reproducibility. Another analyst with the relevant training should be able to follow the documentation, understand the choices that were made, and reproduce the result when the data and permissions allow it.

Software & reproducibility

Code-based and reproducible.

Analysis can run in R, Python, or Stata depending on the task. Code, data-processing steps, and reporting logic can be version-controlled and documented so the work can be reviewed and handed off.

When the engagement and data permissions allow it, replication materials can accompany the final analysis so the client team can update the work as new data becomes available.

The method should be clear enough to examine.

See how the analysis fits into Business & Sports work, or return to the broader consulting capabilities.